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Remembering Mary Oliver

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Photo from Orion Magazine There are some people who, when they die, all you can think of is the light that they imparted. It was sad to hear of the death of Pulitzer Prize winning poet, Mary Oliver. She said in an interview on National Public Radio that "The two things I loved from a very early age were the natural world and dead poets, [who] were my pals when I was a kid." To read or listen to NPR's recollection of the widely loved American poet,  visit the link at " Beloved Poet Mary Oliver, Who Believed Poetry 'Mustn't Be Fancy,' Dies At 83 " -
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Big TFP data mystery! (Probably solved!)

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NOTE: Mystery probably resolved! See update below. Here was the original post, for posterity: While recently complaining about the overselling of static-efficiency policies, I asserted that rich countries have all grown at about the same long-term rate, despite decade-long divergences. I was talking, of course, about Total Factor Productivity, which at long horizons should be determined by technology. I had been under the impression that over the last three decades or so, the rich countries had all experienced similar rates of TFP growth. My source for that was the OECD's time-series on multifactor productivity ( another name for TFP). Here is a chart of those OECD productivity numbers since 1985: As you can see, most rich countries grew their TFP at the same average rate, consistent with the idea that TFP mostly measures technology in the long term, and that technology spreads rather easily between rich countries. A few countries, like Korea, Ireland, and Finland, did much bett...
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Summing up my thoughts on macroeconomics

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I'd like to close the chapter of my life that involves complaining about macroeconomics. I've been out of that world long enough that it's becoming a distant memory. And much more qualified critics are on the job. Furthermore, macroeconomists I talk to - especially young macroeconomists - mostly seem to have heard and internalized all of the critiques. That doesn't mean I want to stop following developments in the macro field, but that my days as a certified "macro-basher" have come to an end. So when the Norwegian Finance Ministry, Norges Bank and Statistics Norway asked me to give a talk about "What Has Happened in Macroeconomics (and what still needs to be done)", I viewed it as an opportunity to sum up. Here are the slides from that talk. Enjoy.
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