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Summing up my thoughts on macroeconomics

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I'd like to close the chapter of my life that involves complaining about macroeconomics. I've been out of that world long enough that it's becoming a distant memory. And much more qualified critics are on the job. Furthermore, macroeconomists I talk to - especially young macroeconomists - mostly seem to have heard and internalized all of the critiques. That doesn't mean I want to stop following developments in the macro field, but that my days as a certified "macro-basher" have come to an end. So when the Norwegian Finance Ministry, Norges Bank and Statistics Norway asked me to give a talk about "What Has Happened in Macroeconomics (and what still needs to be done)", I viewed it as an opportunity to sum up. Here are the slides from that talk. Enjoy.
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Policy recommendations and wishful thinking

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There was a bit of a blow-up earlier this year over Gerald Friedman's analysis of Bernie Sanders' economic plans. Paul Krugman, Christina and David Romer, Brad DeLong and others (including yours truly ) said that Friedman was being overly optimistic about the effects of stimulus - some said he had overestimated the remaining output gap, others questioned the use of " Verdoorn's Law " to predict that stimulus can increase productivity growth to very high levels. Others, like JW Mason and Dean Baker, defended Sanders. To me, it seemed that the coup-de-grace was delivered by Justin Wolfers : When I pointed Mr. Friedman to this critique of his analysis, he simultaneously accepted and rejected it  He accepted it, telling me that “I may have made a mistake.”  But he also rejected this critique, arguing that his figures are based on an alternative view of the world, stating: “To me, when the government spends money, stimulates the economy, hires people who spend, that s...
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Remembering Mary Oliver

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Photo from Orion Magazine There are some people who, when they die, all you can think of is the light that they imparted. It was sad to hear of the death of Pulitzer Prize winning poet, Mary Oliver. She said in an interview on National Public Radio that "The two things I loved from a very early age were the natural world and dead poets, [who] were my pals when I was a kid." To read or listen to NPR's recollection of the widely loved American poet,  visit the link at " Beloved Poet Mary Oliver, Who Believed Poetry 'Mustn't Be Fancy,' Dies At 83 " -
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